Researchers from the University of Illinois and the University of Michigan have developed a new technique to predict a volcanic eruption.
In the new study, published in the Journal Geophysical Research Letters, a new methodology mostly used in traditional weather and climate forecasts, is utilized.
Until today, the typical prediction models regarding volcano eruptions included identifying specific patterns such as earthquakes, alternations in sea level and gas releases. Nevertheless, not all explosions are related to the aforementioned phenomena. For this reason, scientists created a new technique that uses Kalman filtering, a statistical method also known as linear quadratic estimation, for the first time in the field of volcanology.
In particular, researchers focused on the Okmok volcano located in Alaska. Back in 2008, Okmok volcano suddenly erupted sending large quantities of ash plume into the sky and making aviation extremely challenging. In this particular incident, the typical models could not predict the explosion. "The 2008 eruption of Okmok came as a bit of surprise. After an eruption that occurred in 1997, there were periods of slight unrest, but very little seismicity or other eruption precursors. In order to develop better forecasting, it is crucial to understand volcanic eruptions that deviate from the norm,” Jack Albright, graduate student of the University of Illinois and lead author of the study, stated.
A major factor that made the precedent models inadequate in the case of Okmok volcano was the absence of seismic shocks before the eruption. Generally, those models assume that the reservoir under a volcano fills with magma and gases without experiencing expansion. Therefore, the increase of the internal pressure leads to fracturing, causing earthquakes. However, the reservoir under Okmok volcano could expand and, consequently, earthquake incidents were far less than expected. “In the 2008 eruption, it appears that the magma chamber grew larger to accommodate the increasing pressure, so we did not see the precursor seismic activity we would expect. By looking back in time with our models, or hindcasting, we can now observe that stress had been building up in the rocks around the chamber for weeks, and the growth of the magma system ultimately led to its failure and eruption,” Albright added.
Based on data from the mountain's eruption history, researchers stated that the new method used is capable of predicting the volcano's behavior in the future. “While we stopped our analysis after the 2008 eruption, we are now able to propagate this new model forward in time, bring it to present day, and forecast where Okmok volcano is heading next,” Patricia Gregg, Assistant Professor at the Department of Geology, University of Illinois, and co-author of the study said.
Source: University of Illinois
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