Manila to be seriously damaged in the event of a strong 7.2 anticipated earthquake

The magnitude 5.7 earthquake that hit parts of Luzon, including Manila, on Wednesday night is considered by country's top seismologist an opening to a much more devastating event, which is anticipated to occur along Manila's West Valley Fault. The particular fault is expected to generate a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in the following years, urging for public preparedness. 

Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), had already urged local authorities to increase preparedness for the occurrence of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Manila. Adressing disaster risk experts, at a radio summit, Solidum explained the danger that Phillippines' capital is facing, in the event of a strong earthquake coming from the West Valley Fault. The particular fault system crosses from north to south both west and east edges of the Marikina Valley and can cause so much damage that could easily break Manila into four isolated zones. 

Collapsed structures, damaged road network and fires may easily cut the city in four, creating a need for an effective evacuation scenario in case the anticipated 7.2 earthquake hits the city. According to Solidum's estimates, over 100,000 residential buildings may sustain heavy damage, death toll may climb up to 31,000 people, while injured people may even reach 110,000, considering the densely populated city of Manila of 10 million residents. 

Jerry Velasquez, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction regional coordinator, believes that, based on available geological and seismological data, fault movement is "inevitable", however science still cannot predict the exact time of occurrence of the next temblor.