Scientific prediction says the Big One is more likely than previously assessed

Chances of a large magnitude earthquake in California are higher than previously estimated seven years ago. Scientists came up with the new prediction using a new model based on the latest research and seismological data.

According to the new forecast, the probability of a magnitude 8 earthquake is greater than was assessed seven years ago. In their study, researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey and other organizations raised the risk of such an earthquake occurring in the next 30 years from 4.7% (2008 assessment) to 7%. They also stated that lower magnitude events in the order of 6.5 to 7.5 are less and less expected, while events of magnitude 6.7 or larger are expected to hit at a recurrence period of 6.3 years.

USGS geophysicist, Ned Field, stated that the new assessment resulted after using the latest research and seismological data to a new prediction model. In his interview Field said "the model provides a significant refinement in our estimates of where and how often earthquakes will occur throughout the state".