Earthquake prediction has been a challenge for scientists for decades until the development of early warning systems, already up and running in countries like Japan and Mexico. China is in the process of developing a similar system, while in the U.S. the system in still on a pilot-mode due to lack of funding. The specific warnings can only notify people seconds before a temblor occurrence, which may look a negligible amount of time as opposed to hurricane and flooding warnings, predicted hours or even days before hitting inhabited areas. But even that, is missed by Californians due to lack of funding.
Japan's, earthquake early warning system is active since 2007, uses high-end monitoring instruments such as seismometers, tide gauges, and GPS locating stations and authorities systematically perform drills to keep the population aware and prepared. The technology behind this system was developed by scientists and the funding from private companies. According to Caltech earthquake program manager, Margaret Vinci, The system sent out warnings before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 and tsunami that followed. Although many details about the efficiency of the system were not released, many manufacturing companies had the chance to shut down and trains stopped to avoid derailment, saving lives.
In California, the early warning system is still in demonstration mode and supported by a four-year $6 million fund from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, shared between UC Berkeley, Caltech and University of Washington. Its succeeded in sending out a 5-second warning about the recent LaHabra earthquake to scientists and a few first responders, such as railway operators and fire departments. Despite that, it is still far away from becoming a useful tool in the hands of the West Coast authorities in the preparedness of the population. It is estimated that about $80 million is required to expand the system along the entire West Coast and operate it for five years.
A few days ago, 26 Democratic members of the the U.S. House of Representatives, stressed upon the approval of $16.1 million per year, required to expand the system along the West Coast. But it remains to be seen if a majority in Congress will approve the request, given the dispute between the overall cost, the value of a 5-second warning and its transmission to a wide spread area.
Sources: PE.com, AGU, TheTribune
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